Post-Draft Analysis

By now, you probably have a pretty good idea about my continuing obsession with fantasy basketball.  It’s been almost a week since we’ve conducted our league’s draft and already most of our fledgeling managers are in mid-season form.  Almost everyone has moved a player or two from their rosters via the waiver wire and God-knows how many trades and counter-offers have been exchanged through instant messages, emails and text messages.  So much so that I feel I should be writing this analysis before the start of the new week as the team line-ups might never look as close to their post-draft selves within the next few days.

To give everyone a clearer picture of how our roto league is currently set, it’s a 13-team league, with 12 players per roster and 10 playing slots available (point guard, shooting guard, guard, small forward, power forward, forward, 2 center slots, and a couple of utility spots).  The diverse positional requirements to be filled necessitates that each team have a good mix of big and small guys, something that could be overlooked by a careless manager drafting on talent alone.  You’ll see my point at the end of my analysis.

As for the statistics counted, while most standard leagues uses 8 or 9 categories, our slightly OC league counts 12 different statistical categories which includes (holds breath…) points, field goals made, field goal %, free-throws made, free-throw %, 3-pointers made, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, and the ever unpopular turnovers.  Whew.  This may overwhelm most managers but my philosophy has always been, the more categories, the more chances of catching up.  so without further ado, on to the picks:

Disclaimer: I won’t be naming names aside from acknowledging if a pick is mine to spare everyone (especially me) the embarassment.  Also, I’ve personally never won in any fantasy league I’ve joined, and all my commentaries are my opinion alone.  So take my advice with more than a grain of salt.

No surprises in the top as CP3, LeBron, Kobe, and Amare are almost consensus top 4 players in every draft scenario you might find on the web.  Deron might be a bit of a reach since similarly positioned players with more upside (Wade, B-Diddy) and elite big men (Brand, Jefferson, Bosh, Howard) which are rarer were still available but he is no doubt a safe and solid no. 1 PG.  Picking Howard with the 7th pick essentially means giving up on FT%, though his dominance on the other categories immediately gives you a monster producer in the center spot.  The Ray Allen pick was indefensible, even if this were the 4th round.  As it should be obvious to veteran fantasy basketball players, this is an obvious rookie mistake owing to the irresistable pull that ‘name’ players have on newbie managers.  An oft mentioned mantra by fantasy experts is that you won’t win your fantasy league in the first round, but you can certainly lose it there.

My pick: Just my luck as I essentially ‘lost’ on our lottery, landing the 13th spot.  Imagine my delight when Dirk was still available.  In keeping with my philosophy of ‘take the best talent available’, there was no way I was letting the big German slip through to the second round.  He might be, at best, a speculative pick at the 5-8 spot as most early draft boards will attest.  But I feel getting him at my position gives me very good value.

Likes: Big 4, Brand at 10, Dirk at 13
Dislikes: Ray Allen at 12 (?!?!)

The majority of the picks made were still solid, though the Tony Parker, Pierce, and, to a lesser extent Carmelo and J-Rich picks could be considered reaches, but certainly not in the same magnitude as the Allen pick in round 1.  As far as the draft’s been going, the majority of managers have been making reasonable picks thus far.

My pick: Our draft being set-up in snake order, I got to pick first, and since I’ve never really drafted a truly elite point-guard in my past 3 seasons as a manager, I opted for Nash (I had CP3, B-Diddy, and Deron ahead of him, and they were gone).  The Dallas connection was not lost on my fellow managers, and I feel I might have taken him a bit early, but I’m guessing it’s safer to take care of my PG worries now rather than end up without a top tier PG later.

Likes: Wade at 19, Butler at 22, Jefferson at 25
Dislikes: Melo at 15, David West at 18, Tony Parker at 20, J-Rich at 26

Here’s where the talent drop-off from the first two rounds become obvious, as the superstars thin out and the less savvy managers begin to run out of ’solid’ fantasy players to choose from.  The Oden, Horford, and Manu picks are proof of this.  Still, fantasy superstar sleepers abound with Gay, Johnson, and Kevin Martin as the usual suspects.  Some early gambles that could mean the difference between a contending team and a struggling franchise include Yao Ming and Marcus Camby.

My pick: I’ve always hated picking injury-prone players, but seeing Camby available at 39, plus the fact that most of the top centers were already off the board, essentially forced my hand.  I would have never believed it if I was told that I’d be gambling on such a high-risk, high-reward player this early but here I was, reduced to praying for a healthy Camby throughout the 2008-09 season.

Likes: Gay at 27, Granger at 30, Boozer at 37
Dislikes: Oden at 29, Horford at 33, Manu at 38

The picks in this round represent the transition to solid all-stars that, while not providing eye-popping numbers, should help your team compete in a few categories.  Surprisingly, the overall talent drafted in this round arguably surpasses that of the previous round.  Arenas and Jason Terry look to be the only two question marks I can deduce from the board.

My pick: Back-to-back again.  And while Jose Calderon might not be the most talented player left, he certainly plays a valuable position, plus the departure  of TJ Ford means the sky’s the limit in terms of his pro.  I could be sitting on the top two assist makers of the entire draft, or maybe not.  At the very least, this gives me some insurance in the tradition PG categories if one of them goes down.

Likes: Iguodala at 42, Rashard at 46, Jamison at 51
Dislikes: Arenas at 44, Terry at 50.

The talent pool keeps thinning at this point so picks tend to shift to the recognized names.  Mistakes are much less magnified too since the production difference from one pick to another are almost negligible, unless you manage to trip yourself with an obviously awful pick.  It’s also in this round when managers try to complete any positional deficiencies that might have been created with their earlier picks.

My pick: Let’s see, I’ve gone with a superstar forward, two somewhat solid point guards and a risky center, so I’m looking at getting more stability from my frontcourt at this point.  The mini-run at the position earlier in the round (Bogut-Okafor-Chandler) leaves me with Okur as the only logical choice.  Certainly not too shabby if he manages to duplicate his second half numbers from last year.  All bets are off, however, if he falls back into his first-half funk.

Likes: Bogut at 56, VC at 63
Dislikes: None.

Slow and steady goes the picks for this round, as the available players begin to contribute on fewer and fewer categories.  The heady manager might settle on safer picks with limited upside, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any gems to be had, as the more daring managers start gambling on high risk-reward players.  Notable steals (based on projections) include Dunleavy, Aldridge, Randolph, Deng, Josh Howard, and Mike Miller.

My picks: Lamar Odom has been sitting on my radar since the beginning of the 4th round, but positional needs made me pass him over until now.  I know the news hasn’t been too good with regards to his projected role as a sixth man with the Lakers, but his ability to produce in a variety of cats made me think that even modest production from Odom would still give me good value with this pick.  Remember that as recent as last season he was good enough to rank around the 3rd or 4th round of most standard leagues.  T-Mac, at this point, represents the ultimate high risk-high reward pick available on board.  If he manages to play even just 70 games at the top-20 level we know he is capable of when healthy, it would represent a huge payoff for me with this pick.  Of course, he’s just as likely to sit out half the season while being less than 50% if he does play.

Likes: Dunleavy at 69, Aldridge at 75, Deng at 82, Josh Howard at 83, Mike Miller at 87
Dislikes: Beasley at 71, Kirilenko at 72, Eddie House at 81, Derrick Rose at 84, Marc Gasol at 86

We’re moving into semi-waiver wire territory, with every potential pick capable of either being a solid position filler or waiver wire fodder.  This is when those cheat sheets come in handy as you’re essentially trying to scrape the bottom of the barrel for any proven talent before the player pool solidly moves into speculative picks.  The dearth of clear contributors also mean that semi-prepared managers begin to falter with choices that will probably be seen floating on waivers couple of weeks into the season.

My picks: I was running down my cheat sheets when I happened to notice that TJ FORD WAS STILL AVAILABLE!  I can’t emphasize this enough as point guards taken before him at this point include Arenas (out until at least January 2009), Terry, Eddie House(!!!), Derrick Rose, and Barbosa.  I had TJ Ford last year, and short of injury concern, he’s got most of the above players beat in terms of overall fantasy production, even when he was in a time-share at Toronto with Calderon.  Not only is he the best PG available in my opinion at this point, but arguably the best player.  Some sites even predict him breaking out as the clear starter in Indiana.  I can’t be happier with this pick.  At the end of round 9, I was supposed to go big to balance out my line-up but, what do you know, a quick glance at my cheat sheet showed that Randy Foye, Minnesota’s starting PG, was the unquestionably the best talent available.  It’s at this point that I decided to just load up on my strengths and see how the market goes once the regular season begins.  Hopefully, the other owners would be willing to deal.

Likes: TJ Ford at 92, Al Harrington at 96, Drew Gooden at 106, Troy Murphy at 113
Dislikes: Erick Dampier at 93, Rudy Fernandez at 99, Mike Conley at 108, Andrea Bargnani at 114

Here’s where picks are almost all either purely speculative or for one-trick ponies.  You’re almost guaranteed to see these players rotating around the league depending on each team’s need.  Except for the breakout players, which of course depends a lot on luck, positional needs become the primary reason why a team picks a player.  A player who dominates a single category and doesn’t hurt you in the others would be perfect at this point.

My picks: In keeping with the ‘if the best player is a point guard, go for it’ theme I’ve adopted since the 8th round, I still held out hope that I’d get my hands on a couple of decent big men to help shore up my frontline.  Of course Beno Udrih and Rajon Rondo were just sitting there begging me to pick them, and guess what?  I did.  So now I’m sitting here with 6 PGs on my lineup.  Let this be a tale of caution to other managers who have yet to complete their drafts: try to maintain a good balance of big and small men.  Too late for me.  Anthony Parker was just there so I had to pick him, but after the draft I decided to drop him for Joakim Noah in the hopes that he would be able to provide big man stats consistently.

Likes: Kirk Hinrich at 121, Antonio McDyess at 125, John Salmons at 127, Charlie Villanueva at 129, Jameer Nelson at 132, Rafer Alston at 140, Louis Williams at 150
Dislikes: None.

So there you have it.  My complete draft analysis of our league, and probably my longest entry (until the next draft that is).  Can’t wait for the season to start!